8. Forecast of Labour Supply and Demand for Cultural Occupations

This chapter provides insights into not only how the sector has recently performed but also where the sector might be headed. The main intent of labour market projections is to map out the likely future path of employment and occupations given the current state of information. Projections can provide valuable insights about how economic and demographic forces are shaping the labour market and the ensuing impact on certain industries and occupations. Indeed, factors such as demography, technological change, economic growth, globalization, and consumer behaviour can all heavily influence the outcome for labour market. The number and types of jobs in tomorrow’s economy will largely depend on these factors.

Labour market projections can help participants in the labour market by providing valuable insight as to where the jobs are potentially going to be. Individuals can use this information to make informed career choices, educational institutions can align their curricula with the demand, and governments can benefit with respect to their own hiring needs as well as by setting appropriate policies and spending priorities. Meanwhile, businesses can look for opportunities that will help maximize their returns by investing in areas where the skills they require are plentiful. Labour market projections can be instrumental in smoothing out the impact of cyclical and structural changes and mitigating the social and economic costs of higher unemployment.

The value of efficient labour markets to an economy cannot be understated. A well-functioning labour market can generate prosperity for an economy, leading to high levels of output and income. On the other hand, inefficiencies can be costly to an economy and the welfare of its participants, leading to lost output, higher unemployment, and lost income.

8.1 Recent Performance of the Cultural Sector

The forecasts of labour supply and demand for the cultural sector need to consider, and build upon, the recent performance of the sector as reported by Statistics Canada’s Culture Satellite Account. Accounting for inflation, it is estimated that real revenues or the sector increased from $97.7 billion in 2012 to $105.7 billion in 2017 (2012 dollars). This 8.2 per cent growth in real revenues over this period resulted in boosting the real GDP of the sector by nearly 8 per cent (7.9 per cent). While the growth in GDP was slightly lower than the growth of the economy overall (10.3 per cent), the performance among the various domains (and subdomains) of the sector was varied. Overall, the strongest growth at the domain level was within the heritage and libraries, live performance, visual and applied arts, and sound recording domains.

While the growth in real GDP of the cultural sector lagged slightly behind that of the overall economy between 2012 and 2017, growth in employment (7.7 per cent) exceeded the growth in the overall economy (5.6 per cent) during that period. Overall, the strongest growth in employment at the domain level was within the heritage and libraries, live performance, sound recording, and audio-visual and interactive media domains.

In large part, some of the benefits associated with strong employment growth in the sector were the result of relatively weak productivity growth. Using a simple formula of output (revenues) per job, it is perhaps not that surprisingly to find productivity growth in the predominantly services sector–based cultural sector lags significantly behind that of the overall economy. In fact, between 2012 and 2017 the average annual growth in productivity (0.1 per cent) was significantly behind the average annual 1.5 per cent growth in the overall economy. (See Table 8.1.1.)

Table 8.1.1: Recent Productivity Performance of Cultural Sector
(productivity = revenues in 2012 $ 000s per job)

Domains	Subdomains	Productivity, 2012	Productivity, 2017	Average annual productivity growth
Cultural sector, all products and services		147	148	0.1%
Culture products and services only		142	141	-0.2%
Heritage and libraries	Total	80	76	-1.1%
	Archives	133	110	-3.8%
	Libraries	180	143	-4.5%
	Cultural heritage	79	75	-0.9%
	Natural heritage	72	69	-0.9%
Live performance	Total	72	71	-0.3%
	Performing arts	72	71	-0.3%
	Festivals and celebrations	75	73	-0.6%
Visual and applied arts	Total	111	120	1.5%
	Original visual art	61	66	1.6%
	Art reproductions	79	82	1.0%
	Photography	117	122	0.9%
	Crafts	186	155	-3.6%
	Advertising	111	117	1.0%
	Architecture	154	146	-1.0%
	Design	96	117	4.0%
Written and published works	Total	151	146	-0.7%
	Books	204	165	-4.1%
	Periodicals	199	171	-3.0%
	Newspapers	162	134	-3.7%
	Other published works	192	173	-2.0%
	Collected Information	199	171	-3.0%
	Multi-subdomain	127	142	2.2%
Audio-visual and interactive media	Total	216	217	0.0%
	Film and video	160	156	-0.6%
	Broadcasting	320	361	2.4%
	Interactive media	152	170	2.3%
Sound recording	Total	151	143	-1.1%
	Sound recording	100	102	0.4%
	Music publishing	168	155	-1.6%
Education and training		90	87	-0.8%
Governance, funding, and professional support		151	155	0.6%
Multidomain*		241	200	-3.7%
Other products and services		171	178	0.7%

* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada, Provincial and Territorial Culture Indicators (2017).

8.2 Projected Future Performance of the Cultural Sector

Our projection estimates that the potential revenues of cultural industries in Canada could rise from $105.7 billion in 2017 to over $123.1 billion by 2026 (using inflation-adjusted 2012 dollars). (See Table 8.2.1.)

Table 8.2.1: Projected Potential Revenues of the Cultural Sector
(revenues, 2012 $ millions)

Domains	Subdomains	2017	2026	2017–2026 growth
Cultural sector, all products and services		105,721	123,145	16.5%
Culture products and services only		81,752	95,640	17.0%
Heritage and libraries	Total	1,188	1,369	15.2%
	Archives	17	20	23.2%
	Libraries	75	101	34.9%
	Cultural heritage	741	808	9.0%
	Natural heritage	355	440	23.8%
Live performance	Total	4,244	5,015	18.2%
	Performing arts	3,964	4,713	18.9%
	Festivals and celebrations	280	302	8.0%
Visual and applied arts	Total	13,966	17,261	23.6%
	Original visual art	385	493	28.2%
	Art reproductions	79	94	18.0%
	Photography	1,200	1,226	2.1%
	Crafts	698	708	1.3%
	Advertising	3,301	4,256	28.9%
	Architecture	2,106	1,840	-12.6%
	Design	6,197	8,645	39.5%
Written and published works	Total	14,895	16,040	7.7%
	Books	1,388	1,220	-12.1%
	Periodicals	1,802	1,632	-9.4%
	Newspapers	2,839	1,850	-34.8%
	Other published works	190	209	9.9%
	Collected Information	368	344	-6.6%
	Multi-subdomain	8,308	10,784	29.8%
Audio-visual and interactive media	Total	27,716	32,608	17.7%
	Film and video	10,311	12,411	20.4%
	Broadcasting	13,065	14,529	11.2%
	Interactive media	4,340	5,669	30.6%
Sound recording	Total	1,184	1,425	20.4%
	Sound recording	193	211	9.6%
	Music publishing	991	1,214	22.5%
Education and training		4,750	5,338	12.4%
Governance, funding, and professional support		13,804	15,198	10.1%
Multidomain*		1,189	1,385	16.5%
Other products and services		23,969	27,505	14.8%

* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada, Provincial and Territorial Culture Indicators (2017).

This 16.5 per cent projected growth in revenues over this period is expected to boost the real GDP contribution of the sector by over 15 per cent (15.4 per cent) by 2026. (See Table 8.2.2.) This growth is projected to nearly match that of the economy overall (16.1 per cent). Overall, the strongest growth at the domain level is projected in the visual and applied arts, audio-visual and interactive media, and sound recording domains.

Table 8.2.2: Projected Potential GDP of the Cultural Sector
(GDP, 2012 $ millions)

Domains	Subdomains	2017	2026	2017–2026 growth
Cultural sector, all products and services		52,727	60,856	15.4%
Culture products and services only		40,080	46,474	16.0%
Heritage and libraries	Total	524	599	14.4%
	Archives	8	13	75.0%
	Libraries	34	67	99.2%
	Cultural heritage	322	339	5.4%
	Natural heritage	161	179	11.6%
Live performance	Total	1,985	2,150	8.3%
	Performing arts	1,854	2,011	8.5%
	Festivals and celebrations	131	139	6.2%
Visual and applied arts	Total	7,256	9,174	26.4%
	Original visual art	181	193	6.6%
	Art reproductions	36	36	2.5%
	Photography	569	560	-1.5%
	Crafts	240	281	17.2%
	Advertising	1,750	2,172	24.1%
	Architecture	1,347	1,359	0.8%
	Design	3,132	4,572	46.0%
Written and published works	Total	7,437	7,504	0.9%
	Books	695	628	-9.6%
	Periodicals	895	745	-16.7%
	Newspapers	1,827	1,434	-21.5%
	Other published works	95	112	17.6%
	Collected Information	183	173	-5.8%
	Multi-subdomain	3,742	4,413	17.9%
Audio-visual and interactive media	Total	11,531	13,521	17.3%
	Film and video	3,039	3,134	3.1%
	Broadcasting	6,010	6,791	13.0%
	Interactive media	2,482	3,595	44.8%
Sound recording	Total	439	508	15.7%
	Sound recording	77	80	3.8%
	Music publishing	362	428	18.3%
Education and training		3,360	3,843	14.4%
Governance, funding, and professional support		7,338	8,335	13.6%
Multidomain*		650	840	29.2%
Other products and services		12,647	14,382	13.7%

* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada, Provincial and Territorial Culture Indicators (2017).

To estimate the growth in employment for the sector going forward, estimates of labour productivity need to be established. These projections not only consider the recent performance of each domain and subdomain but also incorporate the potential impact that tighter labour markets will have on productivity going forward. Meanwhile, continued advancements in technology and evolving changes in consumption patterns and processes will affect the demand for labour by exerting additional pressure on labour productivity. As a result of the collective influences, between 2017 and 2026, the average annual growth in productivity in the sector is projected to advance 0.9 per cent. (See Table 8.2.3.) While this is still projected to lag the overall economy (1.1 per cent), the gap is projected to narrow significantly.

Table 8.2.3: Projected Potential Productivity Performance of the Cultural Sector
(productivity = revenues in 2012 $ 000s per job)

Domains	Subdomains	Productivity, 2017	Productivity, 2026	Average annual productivity growth
Cultural sector, all products and services		148	160	0.9%
Culture products and services only		141	153	0.9%
Heritage and libraries	Total	76	74	-0.2%
	Archives	110	114	0.4%
	Libraries	143	150	0.5%
	Cultural heritage	75	72	-0.5%
	Natural heritage	69	70	0.2%
Live performance	Total	71	73	0.4%
	Performing arts	71	73	0.4%
	Festivals and celebrations	73	72	-0.3%
Visual and applied arts	Total	120	139	1.7%
	Original visual art	66	77	1.7%
	Art reproductions	82	93	1.3%
	Photography	122	136	1.2%
	Crafts	155	154	-0.1%
	Advertising	117	138	1.9%
	Architecture	146	126	-1.7%
	Design	117	151	2.9%
Written and published works	Total	146	162	1.2%
	Books	165	152	-0.9%
	Periodicals	171	169	-0.1%
	Newspapers	134	110	-2.2%
	Other published works	173	184	0.7%
	Collected Information	171	162	-0.6%
	Multi-subdomain	142	177	2.5%
Audio-visual and interactive media	Total	217	222	0.3%
	Film and video	156	148	-0.6%
	Broadcasting	361	457	2.7%
	Interactive media	170	185	0.9%
Sound recording	Total	143	157	1.1%
	Sound recording	102	112	1.0%
	Music publishing	155	169	1.0%
Education and training		87	88	0.2%
Governance, funding, and professional support		155	164	0.6%
Multidomain*		200	199	-0.1%
Other products and services		178	189	0.7%

* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada, Provincial and Territorial Culture Indicators (2017).

Overall, combining the projected growth in revenues with the estimates for labour productivity suggest that employment in the sector will advance by just under 8 per cent (7.7%) by 2026. (See Table 8.2.4.) This growth is projected to be slightly behind that of the economy overall (9.7%) during the period. The strongest growth at the domain level is projected within the heritage and libraries, live performance, audio-visual and interactive media, and sound recording domains.

Table 8.2.4: Projected Potential Employment of the Cultural Sector
(employment, number of jobs)

Domains	Subdomains	2017	2026	2017-2026 Growth
Cultural sector, all products and services		715,384	770,487	7.7%
Culture products and services only		580,524	624,978	7.7%
Heritage and libraries	Total	15,682	18,402	17.3%
	Archives	151	180	19.0%
	Libraries	522	674	29.0%
	Cultural heritage	9,824	11,242	14.4%
	Natural heritage	5,186	6,307	21.6%
Live performance	Total	59,897	68,398	14.2%
	Performing arts	56,072	64,173	14.4%
	Festivals and celebrations	3,825	4,225	10.5%
Visual and applied arts	Total	116,834	123,759	5.9%
	Original visual art	5,870	6,438	9.7%
	Art reproductions	963	1,007	4.6%
	Photography	9,824	9,039	-8.0%
	Crafts	4,495	4,586	2.0%
	Advertising	28,309	30,926	9.2%
	Architecture	14,379	14,625	1.7%
	Design	52,993	57,136	7.8%
Written and published works	Total	102,062	98,765	-3.2%
	Books	8,423	8,041	-4.5%
	Periodicals	10,539	9,649	-8.4%
	Newspapers	21,142	16,817	-20.5%
	Other published works	1,096	1,134	3.5%
	Collected Information	2,156	2,127	-1.3%
	Multi-subdomain	58,706	60,997	3.9%
Audio-visual and interactive media	Total	127,982	146,645	14.6%
	Film and video	66,284	84,135	26.9%
	Broadcasting	36,233	31,821	-12.2%
	Interactive media	25,464	30,689	20.5%
Sound recording	Total	8,285	9,061	9.4%
	Sound recording	1,885	1,881	-0.2%
	Music publishing	6,400	7,180	12.2%
Education and training		54,710	60,338	10.3%
Governance, funding, and professional support		89,139	92,634	3.9%
Multidomain*		5,933	6,975	17.6%
Other products and services		134,860	145,509	7.9%

* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada, Provincial and Territorial Culture Indicators (2017).

8.3 Examining Labour Supply and Demand Dynamics in the Cultural Sector

To understand if and how labour dynamics for the cultural sector may change going forward and potentially limit the growth of the sector, it is important to first understand the current situation. In many respects, the cultural sector is unique, particularly because of the prevalence of self-employment.

There are a few distinct perspectives that could be used to quantitatively convey the current and projected labour market situation for the sector. One perspective would be to focus on the industry classifications that are deemed to be part of the cultural sector. The challenge is that forecasting the degree to which labour challenges may affect future performance (and may already affect the performance) is complicated due to the fact that many of the jobs within the sector are not cultural occupations. Hence, for non-cultural occupations, the primary drivers of both demand and supply for those positions are likely to be outside of the cultural sector. Unfortunately, at the present time, the level and composition of these jobs is unknown. Hence, one of the recommendations going forward is to consider the development of a human resource module for the Culture Satellite Account.

Another perspective would be to examine the labour market situation focusing solely on those occupations that are identified as cultural under the National Occupation Classification (NOC). The challenge here too is that forecasting the demand for these occupations requires an understanding of the degree to which workers in these jobs work outside the cultural sector. Unfortunately, the degree to which workers in cultural occupations work outside (or even inside) the cultural sector is unknown. A further benefit of a human resource module for the Culture Satellite Account would be to fill in some of these gaps in understanding.

A hybrid approach (used in this report) associates the specific cultural occupational projections with the cultural domain and subdomain projections that are deemed to be most relevant. To do this, however, requires the use of the most recent occupational framework assigned to the cultural sector. At the present time, this continues to be Statistics Canada’s Classification Guide for the Canadian Framework for Culture Statistics (2011).

Ultimately, the resulting labour supply and demand relationships could then be assumed to reflect the reality within the cultural sector. It should be noted that the levels of both labour supply and labour demand differ from the employment levels revealed in the Culture Satellite Account because the primary lens for comparison is on cultural occupations rather than cultural industries.

The following table shows the employment in the cultural occupations based on Statistics Canada’s 2016 Census. (See Table 8.3.1.) Overall, just under 800,000 individuals were reported to have worked in a cultural occupation during the reference year (2015).

Table 8.3.1: Cultural Occupations
(employment, number of jobs)

Domains	Subdomains	2015
Cultural occupations, total		798,305
Heritage and libraries	Total	84,480
	Archivists	2,060
	Records management and filing clerks	7,780
	Librarians	9,835
	Supervisors, library, correspondence, and related information clerks	4,850
	Library clerks	19,075
	Conservators and curators	2,175
	Technical support occupations related to museums and art galleries	9,070
	Conservation and fishery officers	5,440
	Biological technologists and technicians	11,160
	Forestry technologists and technicians	7,780
	Library, archive, museum, and art gallery managers	5,255
Live performance	Total	133,000
	Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations	29,075
	Musicians and singers	40,295
	Dancers	11,700
	Actors and comedians	15,995
	Other performers	8,395
	Conference and event planners	27,540
Visual and applied arts	Total	355,160
	Painters, sculptors, and other visual artists	24,785
	Photographers	21,030
	Photographic and film processors	2,725
	Artisans and craftspersons	17,285
	Professional occupations in advertising, marketing, and public relations	23,570
	Architects	18,080
	Landscape architects	2,215
	Urban and land use planners	13,205
	Architecture and science managers	9,295
	Landscape and horticultural technicians and specialists	21,290
	Architectural technologists and technicians	11,325
	Drafting technologists and technicians	29,755
	Web designers and developers	29,020
	Industrial designers	9,695
	Graphic designers and illustrators	66,875
	Interior designers	28,025
	Theatre, fashion, exhibit, and other creative designers	16,175
	Patternmakers—textile, leather, and fur products	1,120
	Graphic arts technicians	9,690
Written and published works	Total	148,820
	Authors and writers	31,110
	Editors	19,170
	Journalists	13,045
	Translators, terminologists, and interpreters	19,950
	Desktop publishing operators and related occupations	1,805
	Supervisors, printing, and related occupations	3,110
	Printing press operators	17,825
	Printing machine operators	7,920
	Camera, platemaking and other pre-press occupations	2,900
	Binding and finishing machine operators	5,375
	Correspondence, publication and related clerks	26,610
Audio-visual and interactive media	Total	22,080
	Film and video camera operators	5,755
	Announcers and other broadcasters	6,500
	Senior managers—trade, broadcasting, and other services, not elsewhere classified	655
	Broadcast technicians	2,245
	Computer programmers and interactive media developers	6,925
Sound recording	Total	4,550
	Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations & conductors, composers, and arrangers	4,550
Multidomain*	Total	50,215
	Managers—publishing, motion pictures, broadcasting, and performing arts	8,185
	Audio and video recording technicians	14,315
	Other technical support and coordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts	15,875
	Support occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts	11,840

* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada, Provincial and Territorial Culture Indicators (2017).

In the same year (2015), based on data from Statistics Canada’s Job Vacancy and Wage Survey, it was reported that just over 12,300 (12,308) positions for cultural occupations were unfilled. (See Table 8.3.2.) This reported level of vacancies represents 1.5 per cent of the overall employment in cultural occupations that year. Relative to the overall economy in that year (2.9 per cent), cultural occupations exhibited a lower likelihood of being unfilled. In large part, this is due to the fact that a very high percentage of the occupations are filled by self-employed individuals.

Table 8.3.2: Vacancies in Cultural Occupations, 2015
(vacancies, number of jobs)

Domains	Subdomains	2015 vacancies	Vacancy rate (%)
Cultural occupations, Total		12,308	1.5%
Heritage and libraries	Total	1,198	1.4%
	Archivists	12	0.6%
	Records management and filing clerks	117	1.5%
	Librarians	200	2.0%
	Supervisors, library, correspondence, and related information clerks	22	0.4%
	Library clerks	240	1.3%
	Conservators and curators	-	0.0%
	Technical support occupations related to museums and art galleries	115	1.3%
	Conservation and fishery officers	32	0.6%
	Biological technologists and technicians	210	1.9%
	Forestry technologists and technicians	171	2.2%
	Library, archive, museum, and art gallery managers	79	1.5%
Live performance	Total	864	0.6%
	Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations	259	0.9%
	Musicians and singers	-	0.0%
	Dancers	37	0.3%
	Actors and comedians	-	0.0%
	Other performers	46	0.5%
	Conference and event planners	522	1.9%
Visual and applied arts	Total	7,929	2.2%
	Painters, sculptors, and other visual artists	-	0.0%
	Photographers	-	0.0%
	Photographic and film processors	-	0.0%
	Artisans and craftspersons	-	0.0%
	Professional occupations in advertising, marketing, and public relations	1,234	5.2%
	Architects	210	1.2%
	Landscape architects	-	0.0%
	Urban and land use planners	242	1.8%
	Architecture and science managers	280	3.0%
	Landscape and horticultural technicians and specialists	1,863	8.8%
	Architectural technologists and technicians	218	1.9%
	Drafting technologists and technicians	717	2.4%
	Web designers and developers	955	3.3%
	Industrial designers	280	2.9%
	Graphic designers and illustrators	1,431	2.1%
	Interior designers	176	0.6%
	Theatre, fashion, exhibit, and other creative designers	118	0.7%
	Patternmakers—textile, leather, and fur products	-	0.0%
	Graphic arts technicians	205	2.1%
Written and published works	Total	1,499	1.0%
	Authors and writers	386	1.2%
	Editors	289	1.5%
	Journalists	178	1.4%
	Translators, terminologists, and interpreters	56	0.3%
	Desktop publishing operators and related occupations	-	0.0%
	Supervisors, printing, and related occupations	-	0.0%
	Printing press operators	221	1.2%
	Printing machine operators	-	0.0%
	Camera, platemaking and other pre-press occupations	-	0.0%
	Binding and finishing machine operators	88	1.6%
	Correspondence, publication and related clerks	281	1.1%
Audio-visual and interactive media	Total	392	1.8%
	Film and video camera operators	22	0.4%
	Announcers and other broadcasters	95	1.5%
	Senior managers—trade, broadcasting, and other services, not elsewhere classified	1	0.2%
	Broadcast technicians	39	1.8%
	Computer programmers and interactive media developers	235	3.4%
Sound recording	Total	-	0.0%
	Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations & conductors, composers, and arrangers	-	0.0%
Multidomain*	Total	425	0.8%
	Managers—publishing, motion pictures, broadcasting, and performing arts	194	2.4%
	Audio and video recording technicians	50	0.4%
	Other technical support and coordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts	124	0.8%
	Support occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts	58	0.5%

* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada, Job Vacancy and Wage Survey (2015).

While vacancies dipped in 2016, according to data from Statistics Canada’s Job Vacancy and Wage Survey, vacancies then ramped up to reach nearly 14,600 (14,559) by 2018. (See Table 8.3.3.)

Table 8.3.3: Vacancies in Cultural Occupations, 2016–2018
(vacancy, number of jobs)

Domains	Subdomains	2016 Vacancies	2017 Vacancies	2018 Vacancies
Cultural occupations, total		12,049	13,502	14,559
Heritage and libraries	Total	1,193	1,630	1,520
	Archivists	9	-	9
	Records management and filing clerks	157	137	172
	Librarians	123	87	113
	Supervisors, library, correspondence, and related information clerks	16	-	-
	Library clerks	240	368	271
	Conservators and curators	18	-	48
	Technical support occupations related to museums and art galleries	157	311	220
	Conservation and fishery officers	9	77	-
	Biological technologists and technicians	271	470	511
	Forestry technologists and technicians	112	127	107
	Library, archive, museum, and art gallery managers	79	53	69
Live performance	Total	788	1,308	1,409
	Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations	232	279	306
	Musicians and singers	-	85	25
	Dancers	-	83	95
	Actors and comedians	-	-	99
	Other performers	29	80	120
	Conference and event planners	527	780	764
Visual and applied arts	Total	7,891	7,856	8,705
	Painters, sculptors, and other visual artists	-	-	94
	Photographers	23	12	18
	Photographic and film processors	66	-	71
	Artisans and craftspersons	-	-	-
	Professional occupations in advertising, marketing, and public relations	1,586	1,072	1,012
	Architects	183	383	487
	Landscape architects	30	35	25
	Urban and land use planners	309	276	247
	Architecture and science managers	378	233	275
	Landscape and horticultural technicians and specialists	1,395	895	1,032
	Architectural technologists and technicians	286	291	450
	Drafting technologists and technicians	660	886	993
	Web designers and developers	857	1,009	1,082
	Industrial designers	155	269	326
	Graphic designers and illustrators	1,160	1,284	1,405
	Interior designers	366	366	499
	Theatre, fashion, exhibit, and other creative designers	166	190	215
	Patternmakers—textile, leather, and fur products	-	11	-
	Graphic arts technicians	268	644	473
Written and published works	Total	1,324	1,816	1,771
	Authors and writers	344	504	469
	Editors	175	228	175
	Journalists	108	243	221
	Translators, terminologists, and interpreters	148	144	116
	Desktop publishing operators and related occupations	26	15	15
	Supervisors, printing, and related occupations	14	9	23
	Printing press operators	166	211	166
	Printing machine operators	-	107	138
	Camera, platemaking and other pre-press occupations	-	-	41
	Binding and finishing machine operators	134	134	181
	Correspondence, publication and related clerks	209	220	225
Audio-visual and interactive media	Total	408	454	587
	Film and video camera operators	-	-	22
	Announcers and other broadcasters	99	107	162
	Senior managers—trade, broadcasting, and other services, not elsewhere classified	1	1	1
	Broadcast technicians	18	-	7
	Computer programmers and interactive media developers	290	346	394
Sound recording	Total	-	-	-
	Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations & conductors, composers, and arrangers	-	-	-
Multidomain*	Total	444	438	567
	Managers—publishing, motion pictures, broadcasting, and performing arts	226	177	194
	Audio and video recording technicians	35	18	79
	Other technical support and coordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts	117	184	202
	Support occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts	67	58	93

* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada, Job Vacancy and Wage Survey (2016–2018).

It should be noted that in any one year, the level of overall demand for cultural occupations may exceed that which is actually met by the economy. The degree to which labour demand may exceed labour supply is assumed to be equal to the number of positions that remain unfilled. Conservatively, this could be reflected by the level of reported vacancies in the Job Vacancy and Wage Survey. It could be argued that this is likely to be conservative, given that not all vacancies will show up using this data source. Statistic Canada’s Job Vacancy and Wage Survey reflects only vacancies that have been unfilled for at least one month. In addition, there may be reasons why businesses or individuals do not recruit positions using a formal process.

As these shortages are already creeping up in the cultural sector (and in the overall economy), it will be important to address labour challenges in the sector. Without success in addressing such issues going forward, the cultural sector could face growing difficulties in attracting and retaining employees and individuals—factors that could limit the growth potential of the sector.

Aside from affecting performance in any one year, labour shortages can also affect future investment decisions. Our methodology to estimate the degree to which job vacancies reduce potential investment draws upon insights from the Business Development Bank of Canada’s (BDC)’s Investment Intentions Survey (conducted annually since 2015)—in particular, responses to questions on that survey that probe for factors limiting the investment intentions of small businesses in Canada. To establish a relationship, we linked the survey results (specifically, the proportion of small businesses indicating a reduction in investment due to a shortage of qualified employees each year) with the job vacancy rates in each year.

Using 2015 as a reference year—when the shortage represented just the level of vacancies—we can estimate the level of labour demand that exists in any year by adding together the labour supply (observed performance) plus the shortages (as reported by the Job Vacancy and Wage Survey) plus any potential “carry-over” effects from previous years’ vacancies. This process can be repeated up to 2018 (the last full year of vacancy data, as reported by the Job Vacancy and Wage Survey). (See Table 8.3.4.) In this table, the overall estimated labour shortage (14,704) is higher than the reported Job Vacancy and Wage Survey vacancies (14,559) for that year (as shown in Table 8.3.3).

Table 8.3.4: Labour Demand, Supply, and Shortage in Cultural Occupations, 2018
(number of jobs)

Domains	Subdomains	2018 Labour Demand	2018 Labour Supply	2018 Shortage
Cultural Occupations, Total		866,159	851,456	14,704
Heritage and libraries	Total	97,136	95,593	1,544
	Archivists	2,305	2,296	9
	Records management and filing clerks	8,955	8,781	174
	Librarians	11,225	11,111	114
	Supervisors, library, correspondence, and related information clerks	5,479	5,479	-
	Library clerks	21,801	21,528	273
	Conservators and curators	2,430	2,382	48
	Technical support occupations related to museums and art galleries	10,158	9,932	226
	Conservation and fishery officers	6,322	6,321	2
	Biological technologists and technicians	13,485	12,967	519
	Forestry technologists and technicians	9,149	9,039	109
	Library, archive, museum, and art gallery managers	5,827	5,758	70
Live performance	Total	152,650	151,234	1,416
	Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations	33,742	33,435	307
	Musicians and singers	46,363	46,338	25
	Dancers	13,550	13,455	96
	Actors and comedians	18,492	18,394	99
	Other performers	9,775	9,654	121
	Conference and event planners	30,728	29,960	768
Visual and applied arts	Total	389,685	380,901	8,784
	Painters, sculptors, and other visual artists	28,131	28,037	94
	Photographers	22,062	22,045	18
	Photographic and film processors	2,958	2,887	71
	Artisans and craftspersons	18,426	18,426	-
	Professional occupations in advertising, marketing, and public relations	25,623	24,600	1,022
	Architects	19,749	19,259	490
	Landscape architects	2,376	2,350	27
	Urban and land use planners	14,258	14,009	250
	Architecture and science managers	10,139	9,861	278
	Landscape and horticultural technicians and specialists	23,626	22,586	1,040
	Architectural technologists and technicians	12,468	12,014	454
	Drafting technologists and technicians	32,564	31,566	998
	Web designers and developers	32,465	31,377	1,088
	Industrial designers	10,813	10,482	330
	Graphic designers and illustrators	73,714	72,307	1,407
	Interior designers	30,801	30,301	500
	Theatre, fashion, exhibit, and other creative designers	17,705	17,489	216
	Patternmakers—textile, leather, and fur products	1,212	1,211	1
	Graphic arts technicians	10,595	10,097	498
Written and published works	Total	142,224	140,435	1,789
	Authors and writers	31,382	30,911	471
	Editors	19,254	19,077	177
	Journalists	12,957	12,733	224
	Translators, terminologists, and interpreters	20,458	20,341	117
	Desktop publishing operators and related occupations	1,762	1,745	16
	Supervisors, printing, and related occupations	3,193	3,170	23
	Printing press operators	15,590	15,423	168
	Printing machine operators	6,993	6,853	140
	Camera, platemaking and other pre-press occupations	2,550	2,509	41
	Binding and finishing machine operators	4,836	4,651	186
	Correspondence, publication and related clerks	23,249	23,023	226
Audio-visual and interactive media	Total	25,392	24,793	599
	Film and video camera operators	6,598	6,576	22
	Announcers and other broadcasters	7,340	7,176	164
	Senior managers—trade, broadcasting, and other services, not elsewhere classified	742	741	1
	Broadcast technicians	2,311	2,304	7
	Computer programmers and interactive media developers	8,401	7,996	405
Sound recording	Total	4,927	4,927	-
	Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations & conductors, composers, and arrangers	4,927	4,927	-
Multidomain*	Total	54,145	53,573	572
	Managers—publishing, motion pictures, broadcasting, and performing arts	8,929	8,732	197
	Audio and video recording technicians	15,351	15,272	79
	Other technical support and coordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts	17,140	16,937	203
	Support occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts	12,725	12,632	94

* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada, Job Vacancy and Wage Survey (2016-2018).

Going forward, labour shortages are projected to continue to ramp up for many occupations, as labour demand is forecast to increase at a faster pace than supply. (See Table 8.3.5.) By 2026, the degree to which labour demand could exceed labour supply is projected to exceed 20,050 jobs. This does not suggest that the level of vacancies reported by the Job Vacancy and Wage Survey for that year would equal this figure. Rather, this figure reflects the cumulative effect of previous labour shortages that result in curtailed expansion and investment decisions together with the outright labour shortages for that year.

Table 8.3.5: Labour Demand, Supply, and Shortage in Cultural Occupations, 2026
(number of jobs)

Domains	Subdomains	2026 Labour Demand	2026 Labour Supply	2026 Shortage
Cultural Occupations, Total		933,225	912,650	20,575
Heritage and libraries	Total	120,172	114,513	5,659
	Archivists	2,791	2,657	134
	Records management and filing clerks	11,060	10,737	323
	Librarians	14,697	13,917	780
	Supervisors, library, correspondence, and related information clerks	6,972	6,863	109
	Library clerks	26,914	26,324	590
	Conservators and curators	2,838	2,681	157
	Technical support occupations related to museums and art galleries	11,767	11,180	586
	Conservation and fishery officers	7,829	7,511	318
	Biological technologists and technicians	16,654	15,409	1,246
	Forestry technologists and technicians	11,856	10,742	1,114
	Library, archive, museum, and art gallery managers	6,795	6,492	304
Live performance	Total	171,232	169,086	2,145
	Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations	38,581	37,610	971
	Musicians and singers	52,149	52,124	25
	Dancers	15,230	15,135	95
	Actors and comedians	20,789	20,691	99
	Other performers	10,980	10,859	120
	Conference and event planners	33,503	32,667	836
Visual and applied arts	Total	411,959	402,760	9,199
	Painters, sculptors, and other visual artists	30,445	30,350	94
	Photographers	22,630	22,612	18
	Photographic and film processors	2,747	2,676	71
	Artisans and craftspersons	19,143	19,080	63
	Professional occupations in advertising, marketing, and public relations	27,559	26,547	1,012
	Architects	20,663	20,175	487
	Landscape architects	2,474	2,449	25
	Urban and land use planners	14,849	14,602	247
	Architecture and science managers	10,553	10,278	275
	Landscape and horticultural technicians and specialists	24,624	23,542	1,083
	Architectural technologists and technicians	12,973	12,523	450
	Drafting technologists and technicians	33,895	32,902	993
	Web designers and developers	34,566	33,484	1,082
	Industrial designers	11,606	11,186	420
	Graphic designers and illustrators	78,567	77,162	1,405
	Interior designers	32,835	32,336	499
	Theatre, fashion, exhibit, and other creative designers	19,150	18,663	487
	Patternmakers—textile, leather, and fur products	1,306	1,292	14
	Graphic arts technicians	11,375	10,901	473
Written and published works	Total	132,666	130,895	1,771
	Authors and writers	31,210	30,741	469
	Editors	19,121	18,945	175
	Journalists	12,497	12,275	221
	Translators, terminologists, and interpreters	21,098	20,982	116
	Desktop publishing operators and related occupations	1,678	1,662	15
	Supervisors, printing, and related occupations	3,291	3,268	23
	Printing press operators	12,814	12,648	166
	Printing machine operators	5,758	5,620	138
	Camera, platemaking and other pre-press occupations	2,099	2,058	41
	Binding and finishing machine operators	3,995	3,814	181
	Correspondence, publication and related clerks	19,106	18,881	225
Audio-visual and interactive media	Total	29,166	28,294	871
	Film and video camera operators	7,939	7,843	96
	Announcers and other broadcasters	8,172	7,976	196
	Senior managers—trade, broadcasting, and other services, not elsewhere classified	884	866	18
	Broadcast technicians	2,190	2,182	7
	Computer programmers and interactive media developers	9,982	9,428	554
Sound recording	Total	5,328	5,328	-
	Producers, directors, choreographers, and related occupations & conductors, composers, and arrangers	5,328	5,328	-
Multidomain*	Total	62,703	61,772	930
	Managers—publishing, motion pictures, broadcasting, and performing arts	10,445	10,069	376
	Audio and video recording technicians	17,742	17,610	132
	Other technical support and coordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts	19,803	19,529	274
	Support occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting, and the performing arts	14,713	14,565	148

* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain

Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

8.4 Impact of Labour Shortages

Based on the share of total employment in each domain that was unfilled, the level of output (revenues) lost as result of labour shortages can be calculated. (See Table 8.4.1.) The figures in Table 8.4.1 exclude the impact of shortages in cultural occupations on the functioning of the transversal domains (including education and training, governance, funding, and professional support) and the cultural sector’s production of non-cultural goods and services. Overall, it is estimated that labour shortages have already resulted in reducing the potential output in the sector by nearly $975,000 in 2015 and over $1.2 million in 2018 (2012 dollars).

Table 8.4.1: Recent Impact of Shortages on Cultural Sector (Excluding Transversal and Other Products)
(revenues, 2012 $ 000s)

Domains	2015	2016	2017	2018
Cultural sector	974.8	962.5	1,084.0	1,238.3
Heritage and libraries	15.8	15.5	20.9	19.4
Live performance	26.1	22.9	37.4	40.5
Visual and applied arts	293.9	295.9	294.2	329.7
Written and published works	162.0	136.4	192.5	190.8
Audio-visual and interactive media	467.0	481.5	528.9	644.8
Sound recording	-	-	-	-
Multidomain*	10.0	10.2	10.0	13.1

* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada, Job Vacancy and Wage Survey (2016–2018).

Once again, based on the projected share of total employment in each domain that could be in shortage out to 2026, estimates can be generated to reflect the level of output (revenues) that will be lost. (See Table 8.4.2.) The figures in Table 8.4.2 also exclude the potential impact of shortages in cultural occupations on the functioning of the transversal domains (including education and training, governance, funding, and professional support) and the cultural sector’s production of non-cultural goods and services. Overall, it is estimated that labour shortages will curtail the potential output in the sector by over $1.5 million in 2026 (2012 dollars).

Table 8.4.2: Future Impact of Shortages on Cultural Sector (Excluding Transversal and Other Products)
(revenues, 2012 $ 000s)

Domains		2026
Cultural Sector		1,536.6
Heritage and libraries		58.7
Live performance		53.7
Visual and applied arts		387.2
Written and published works		216.8
Audio-visual and interactive media		779.5
Sound recording		-
Multidomain*		40.7

* includes culture industries that affect more than one culture domain and cannot easily be allocated to a single domain

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada, Job Vacancy and Wage Survey (2016–2018).

8.5 Summary

Despite the various data challenges that exist in accurately projecting labour market trends for the cultural sector, this section of the report has provided a context to build from. In particular, the analysis in this section quantifies the degree to which employment in each domain is unfilled and will potentially be unfilled in the future. Conservatively, labour shortages are estimated to have reduced the cultural sector’s potential output by over $1.2 million in 2018 alone (2012 dollars). Labour shortages are projected to cost the cultural sector over $1.5 million annually in lost output (2012 dollars) by 2026.

While the topic of labour shortages in the cultural sector is rarely discussed, in large part because a very high percentage of occupations are filled by self-employed individuals, the analysis presented here shows that labour shortages do exist and, in some cases, are projected to worsen.